Anonymous asked: How do you test P?
With each claim that’s been made. Those with sufficient empirical evidence behind them have, a vast majority of the time, turned out to be correct (or at the very least, functionally correct): and it’s only a lack of empirical evidence that lead to many of the mistakes.
P is tried and tested. Every single claim made verifies P.
So we know, at the very least, that claims with sufficient empirical evidence are reliable.
To examine the ‘only’, we need just look at examples of claims made with no empirical evidence. Incorrect so, so very much more than those made with empirical evidence. Chance alone (a phenomenon with empirical evidence behind it, as well as simple logic) accounts for the incredible minority of correct guesses.
You can test it yourself, should you wish. Find something you have no knowledge about (a book perhaps, or a more obscure/complex region of science). Write down what you think will happen, or is the case, without looking at it: then read the book, or research that field. See which gives a better picture.